2025: The Year of 3% and 6%

– My Predictions

3. Stock Market Rising by 6%
Historically, stock market returns outpace inflation and economic growth, and 2025 looks to follow the trend with an expected 6% increase.

4. Interest Rates at 6%
With inflation at 3%, central banks are likely to set interest rates at 6% to encourage savings and investments while maintaining economic stability.

Oil Prices
Oil prices are forecasted to hover between $70 and $80 a barrel, which translates to a change of around -6.7% to +6.7%. Much will depend on global supply dynamics and geopolitical developments. Let’s call it 6%, but first few months are going to be slow.

Real Estate: A Safe Bet
The housing market is predicted to grow modestly:
– Residential Real Estate; Prices are expected to rise by 2% to 2.6%.This is location specific, some +10% while other -3% – Let’s call average at 3%
– Commercial Real Estate: Projections are unclear, but performance will depend on economic conditions and location, expect some bankruptcies.
– Mortgage Rates: Expected to remain stable, ranging from 6% to 6.8%. Let’s call it 6%

Yes, the FED will lower interest rates, but it won’t matter because prices will still go up.

Bitcoin: The Wild Card
Bitcoin could see explosive growth, with forecasts ranging from 328% to 614%, reaching potential highs of $150,000 to $250,000. It remains a highly volatile and unpredictable asset. Who freaking knows, it will go up and go down, where it ends no one knows.

Salary Increases
For workers, salaries are projected to increase by 3.5% to 3.9% on average. Higher-than-average raises are expected in government and engineering roles (around 4.5%), while retail and education may see increases closer to 3.1%. – Let’s call it 3%

Summary
2025 is shaping up to be a steady year with key themes of moderation and stability. Inflation and growth are aligned at 3%, the stock market and interest rates are pegged at 6%, and salary increases are steady. While oil and real estate remain stable, Bitcoin continues to be a high-risk, high-reward gamble. It’s a year to watch the numbers, plan wisely, and stay balanced in your financial decisions. The beginning of the year with a new administration and other issues will start slow, perhaps even a drop, it will be much better by summer.

Predictions are tricky things, especially about the future. Now, of course, I could be entirely off my rocker. WWIII might kick off in the Middle East, Ukraine, or Taiwan. Bitcoin could be hacked to kingdom come. Trump could be shot—again, heaven forbid—and real, bonafide aliens might decide to touch down in New Jersey, of all places.

The world’s a mighty strange and unpredictable place, my friend. That’s why I keep a little VIX tucked away—though that’s a tale for another day.

Well, good luck to you, friend. Rest assured, it’ll be anything but dull. It’ll be downright interesting—the sort of interesting that keeps you on the edge of your seat and praying for a dull moment. And don’t blink, because everything will happen faster than a rumor at a church picnic. That’s the way of things nowadays—quick, chaotic, and mighty entertaining, if you can survive it.

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Here’s a table summarizing all the assets discussed herein with their expected percentage increases or decreases in 2025: