If there’s one thing history teaches us, it’s that every time mankind thinks it’s standing on solid ground, the earth decides to shift beneath its feet. We’ve tamed fire, we’ve forged steel, we’ve split the atom, and now, we’re about to give birth to something that might just outthink us all—Artificial Intelligence.
The good folks of the 19th century fretted over steam engines replacing farmhands, just as the 20th-century factory worker eyed robots with suspicion. But the upheaval before us today is unlike any before. You see, the machine isn’t just learning to plow fields or tighten bolts—it’s learning to think. And if the predictions hold true, by the end of this very year, AI will be the best coder in the world, smarter than any single human in that domain. Soon after, it may discover new knowledge, cracking scientific riddles that have puzzled us for centuries.
Now, some will say this is the grandest leap forward mankind has ever made, while others will argue it’s the beginning of our obsolescence. Either way, the train’s left the station, and we best figure out whether we’re its passengers or just another set of tracks.
The Great AI Acceleration: Key Takeaways
1. AI as the Supreme Coder
By the end of 2025, OpenAI is expected to roll out a model that surpasses any human coder in the world.
- Every GPT iteration has increased intelligence 100x, with each new version unlocking previously unseen emergent behaviors.
- AI is following the same trajectory as AlphaGo, the AI that defeated the world’s best Go players by inventing moves no human had ever conceived.
- AI coding assistants (like Devon) are already being deployed in businesses, and soon, there will be millions of them working 24/7, writing software faster and with fewer errors than humans ever could.
But the real kicker? This isn’t just about writing code. This is AI writing AI, improving itself with each iteration.
2. AI Will Soon Start Discovering New Knowledge
Right now, AI is great at coding, math, and science because these disciplines have provable answers. AI gets better through reinforcement learning—when it gets a problem right, it’s rewarded, much like training a dog (or a particularly stubborn child).
- The next 100x increase in AI intelligence is expected to unlock the ability to invent new algorithms, discover new physics, and unravel biological mysteries.
- Sam Altman suggests that within one to two years, AI may begin self-improving, leading to an intelligence explosion—an era where AI rapidly surpasses human knowledge at an accelerating pace.
The moment AI can apply its own discoveries to itself, humanity’s role in intellectual progress could shift from creators to spectators.
3. AI Progress Is Exceeding Moore’s Law
The original Moore’s Law—which predicted that computing power would double every 18 months—pales in comparison to AI’s current trajectory.
- The cost of using AI drops by 10x every 12 months, meaning intelligence is becoming exponentially cheaper and more accessible.
- By mid-2024, OpenAI’s GPT-4.0 was 150x cheaper per token than its predecessor, a rate of improvement that dwarfs the transistor revolution.
At this pace, AI won’t just be in our smartphones and search engines—it’ll be embedded in everything, from self-writing books to self-repairing machines.
4. The Economic Impact: Capital vs. Labor
When machines replaced human muscle, we adapted. But what happens when machines replace human intellect?
- AI will make every human worker more productive, but it may also disrupt traditional job markets like never before.
- In a world where AI can perform any knowledge-based task better, who controls the AI workforce?
- The balance of power will shift—right now, companies need to pay workers. But if AI replaces labor, capital will be able to generate infinite work at near-zero cost, potentially reshaping society’s economic structure.
In the past, people left farming for factories, and factories for offices. But what happens when AI takes over the office too?
5. The Road to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Sam Altman has made it clear—AGI is now “coming into view.”
- OpenAI’s agreement with Microsoft originally stipulated that once AGI was reached, Microsoft would no longer receive OpenAI’s research—a sign that AGI is closer than we think.
- AGI isn’t just about building a smarter chatbot—it’s about AI being able to learn and apply knowledge across all domains, like a human (but faster).
- The key development driving AGI forward is Test-Time Compute, which allows AI to think longer and more deeply about complex problems rather than just relying on pre-training.
By 2026, AI may not just answer our questions—it may start asking the questions we never thought to ask.
The Coming Storm: What It Means for Us
The writing’s on the wall, my friends. AI is accelerating at a pace faster than anything we’ve ever seen, and it’s raising more questions than we have answers for.
Will it cure cancer? Will it build utopias? Or will it simply make a few rich folks even richer while the rest of us are left staring into the void, wondering what work even means anymore?
Sam Altman (see below) himself oscillates between optimism and caution. One moment, he tells us that AGI is a long way off, and the next, he drops a blog post warning us that it’s right around the corner. Even he isn’t sure exactly when the hammer will fall—but he knows it will.
“The problem with progress is that it doesn’t care whether you’re ready for it or not. First, the steam engine put the horses out of work, then the automobile did the same to the steam engine, and now, the thinking machine is coming for the driver. Soon, a fella won’t even have to lift a finger—though I suspect he won’t much like what happens when he stops needing to.”
The real danger isn’t the machine—it’s the man who owns the machine. AI isn’t plotting world domination; it isn’t scheming in the dead of night. But the folks pulling the levers? That’s another story.
So here we stand, staring at the biggest technological upheaval in history, with nothing but a handful of questions and a whole lot of uncertainty.
The train’s coming, and there are only two choices: figure out how to ride it—or get run over.
EXTRA CREDIT
Here are two charts, including projections for 2030:
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First Chart: Shows the size (in cubic feet) and cost (in thousands of dollars) of typical business computers from the 1950s to the projected 2030s.
- Computer size has drastically shrunk, while costs have fallen significantly.
- The 2030 projection suggests even smaller form factors, possibly embedded AI-driven systems, at an even lower cost.
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Second Chart: Shows memory (KB) and storage (MB) trends over the same period.
- Memory has grown exponentially, from just 4 KB in the 1950s to an estimated 137 TB (Terabytes) in 2030.
- Storage follows a similar trajectory, surpassing 1 petabyte (1 million GB) in business machines by 2030.
This paints a clear picture: computers are getting exponentially smaller, cheaper, and vastly more powerful.
WHO IS SAM ALTMAN?
Sam Altman is an American entrepreneur, investor, and CEO best known for his leadership at OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. He has played a key role in advancing artificial intelligence and is one of the most influential figures in the AI industry today.
Background & Early Life
- Born: April 22, 1985, in Chicago, Illinois
- Education: Studied computer science at Stanford University but dropped out
- Early Success: Co-founded Loopt, a location-based social networking app, in 2005. The company was later acquired by Green Dot Corporation for $43 million in 2012.
Career Highlights
Y Combinator (2011–2019)
- Became president of Y Combinator (YC), one of the most prestigious startup accelerators.
- Helped fund and mentor companies like Airbnb, Stripe, Dropbox, and Reddit.
- Expanded YC’s influence in the startup world and backed AI research.
OpenAI (2015–Present)
- Co-founded OpenAI in 2015 alongside Elon Musk, Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, and others.
- Initially, OpenAI was a nonprofit dedicated to AI research for public good, but later became a capped-profit company.
- Under his leadership, OpenAI developed GPT-3, GPT-4, DALL·E, and ChatGPT, bringing AI into mainstream use.
- Played a key role in securing a $10 billion investment from Microsoft to power AI research and deployment.
Brief Firing & Reinstatement (2023)
- In November 2023, Altman was suddenly fired by OpenAI’s board due to disagreements over AI development and safety.
- His removal led to a massive backlash, with OpenAI employees, investors, and Microsoft pushing for his return.
- Just days later, he was reinstated as CEO, and OpenAI underwent governance restructuring.
Views on AI & Future
- Altman believes AI will transform the global economy and could eventually lead to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
- He has warned about AI risks but also argues for maximizing its potential to improve human life.
- He is a strong advocate for AI safety, regulation, and responsible deployment.
Net Worth & Influence
- Altman is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions, though he has reinvested much of his wealth into AI and startups.
- He is widely seen as one of the most powerful figures shaping AI and its impact on society.
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