There is a Thin Line Between Diplomacy, Cold War, and Hot War
In diplomacy, you like cats, but your neighbor doesn’t. To keep the peace, you pretend not to feed the stray cats, and you even tell them how cute their mongrel is. You’re being nice, hoping they’ll be nice to you in return. That’s diplomacy.
War, is when they run over your cat, and you poison their dog. At this point, the sky is limit at what could happen, unless someone calls the police.
If there’s one thing history teaches us, it’s that people will do just about anything to avoid a fight—until they can’t. Nations, like nosy neighbors, spend half their time smiling through gritted teeth, pretending they don’t mind the noise, the borrowed tools never returned, or the stray cats fed in secret. The other half? Well, that’s spent sharpening the pitchforks just in case the neighbor gets any funny ideas.
Diplomacy is a polite lie wrapped in a handshake, and war is the moment when everybody drops the act. The United States and China have been dancing around each other for years, sometimes smiling, sometimes stepping on toes, but never quite throwing the first punch. Russia same thing except they are non-functional because of bad management and corruption. Yet, behind the scenes, the preparations never stop. The world has always been a stage, and this particular play has been running longer than most of us care to admit.
So where does that leave us? Somewhere between pretending not to feed the cats and building bigger, sharper pitchforks.
The trouble with war is that it rarely asks for your permission before showing up at your doorstep. One minute you’re minding your own business, and the next, you’re wondering why the sky is full of drones and your neighbor has a sudden interest in the fine art of sabotage. The US used to be the neighborhood cop, but lost its badge to decades of decay and failures of negligence.
Maybe we’ll keep pretending a little longer. Maybe we’ll keep grinning, shaking hands, and feeding the cats when no one’s looking. Or maybe—just maybe—somebody will get tired of pretending, and then the real trouble begins.
One thing’s for certain: history has never been much for happy endings, but it sure knows how to keep folks on the edge of their seats.
There are two kinds of war: hot war—a declared, open conflict, and cold war—an undeclared, ongoing struggle through indirect means. The United States has always been in a cold war with someone, because on the world stage, there are always competitors. Cold wars are fought through proxies.
For example, China sends advanced drone technology to Iran, which builds drones and supplies them to the Houthis, knowing this will disrupt the United States. A proxy of a proxy of a proxy. China also provides intelligence to North Korea, which then hacks U.S. computer systems and funnels that information to Iran, Venezuela, or other adversaries. This type of cold war has been ongoing for decades.
Meanwhile, both China and the United States are preparing for a real hot war. They are building weapons, armies, alliances, and strategies. Will a real war happen? Maybe, maybe not. We’ve been lucky so far, but neither side is backing down.
This leaves us in a dangerous balance—a high-stakes game where both nations test the limits of their influence without crossing the line into direct conflict. This is the essence of great power competition: deterrence, preparation, and maneuvering through economic, technological, and military means.
The U.S. and China are engaged in a cold war of attrition, using economic tools (tariffs, sanctions, trade restrictions), military posturing (South China Sea, Taiwan, alliances), and cyber warfare. Each side builds relationships and proxy networks to undermine the other, without stepping onto the battlefield. But cold wars can turn hot unexpectedly—through miscalculation, regional conflicts spiraling out of control, or deliberate escalation.
The real question: What breaks the balance?
Historically, wars often start when one side miscalculates the resolve or capabilities of the other. If China believes the U.S. lacks the will to defend Taiwan, or if the U.S. underestimates China’s military readiness, a conflict could erupt. Economic collapse, political instability, or technological breakthroughs (e.g., AI, quantum computing) could also tip the scales.
For now, diplomacy, deterrence, and strategic alliances are preventing open war. But preparation continues. The world is shifting, and this balance will not hold forever. The only question is when it will break—and what happens when it does.
So let us now talk China, Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Europe, Australia, Japan, France, UK, North Korea. and a few others. The world is full of cats and dogs.
They are all Cats and Dogs, some with Nukes.
Is peace possible? Is War an Option?
EXTRA CREDIT
MORE ABOUT WAR & PEACE
Shadow Doctrine and Moral Flexibility
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