THE GOOD: Donald Trump just Shook the world—and the tariff plan is not what you think.
Understanding the Tariffs
I love these tariffs, but no one seems to understand them.
To understand what Trump is doing, you just need to read The Art of the Deal. It’s all spelled out in there.
So what is he doing? What’s this tariff plan really?
It’s a bluff—but also, it’s not.
Let’s go over the basics quickly. A tariff is simply a tax on imported goods, usually to persuade people to buy domestic alternatives. For instance, Japan has a 778% tariff on American rice to protect local farmers. If a store in Japan buys $1 million worth of American rice, it ends up costing nearly $8.8 million, most of it going to the Japanese government.
Trump’s plan? Reciprocal tariffs. If you tax us, we tax you. But he charges less than what they charge us—a discounted reciprocal tariff.
The Deeper Strategy
But Trump’s plan isn’t just about fairness or protecting U.S. businesses. It’s deeper. It’s about leverage.
According to The Art of the Deal, to win a negotiation, you need:
- Something the other party wants more than you want what they have.
- The willingness to walk away without a deal.
Trump isn’t just after reduced tariffs. With some countries, he wants military cooperation. With others, political concessions, peace treaties. The world is a web of relationships—military, economic, political—and Trump is reorganizing it to America’s advantage.
These tariffs give him massive negotiating power. Want us to lower the tariffs? Give us what we want.
Not Just Bluffing
And here’s where it gets clever. The tariffs aren’t just a bluff.
If a country refuses to deal, the U.S. keeps the tariffs in place—collecting billions in revenue. That revenue pays for Trump’s tax cuts, reduces debt and deficit, and boosts the U.S. economy.
U.S. companies will profit. Foreign companies will move operations to the U.S. More jobs. Better wages.
Why Critics Are Nervous
So why the criticism? Even some conservatives are skeptical.
Basic macroeconomic theory says tariffs are bad because:
- They reduce options.
- They increase prices.
- The consumer—you—ends up paying more.
Tariffs discourage you from buying cheaper foreign goods. In the best case, governments collect more money, but businesses and consumers pay higher prices.
Why This Time Might Be Different
But in Trump’s case, it’s different.
This administration is fighting corruption, and there’s talk of lowering taxes using the tariff revenue. That money goes back into the hands of the people.
Estimates say the government could raise $600 billion a year. That could fund tax cuts across the board—income, corporate, and even Social Security taxes—paving the way for 4% economic growth.
The Risk of Trade Wars
Economists dislike tariffs because they can spark trade wars.
A look back: In the 1920s, U.S. farmers were struggling. Congress tried to help with tariffs. Economists warned against it. Hoover signed the bill anyway. Countries retaliated. Trade dropped. The Great Depression followed.
But Trump’s case is different—he hit almost 200 countries at once. Some are folding already. Others will follow. Soon, it may become a race to negotiate with the U.S.
Strategic Benefits of Tariffs
There are two major upsides to tariffs:
- They pressure other countries to drop theirs.
- They can diversify U.S. industry and jobs.
Right now, 20% of Americans are on some form of welfare. Why? Because the economy has shifted from industrial to knowledge-based. But not everyone wants—or is able—to be a lawyer, doctor, or software engineer.
People want to build, fish, fix cars, or farm. Tariffs can help bring those jobs back.
IQ, Jobs, and Opportunity
America has 350 million people. We need a broad range of jobs.
Jobs often correlate with IQ. But not everyone thrives in high-IQ roles. Most people are better off in jobs they enjoy and are suited for.
Right now, the job market favors high-IQ roles more than we have high-IQ people to fill them. That’s a problem. Tariffs can bring back more hands-on, moderate-IQ jobs that match the American population better.
DEI and Workforce Mismatch
DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) is also skewing hiring. People get placed in jobs they aren’t qualified for. This hurts everyone: coworkers, the business, and the individuals themselves.
Instead, let people do what they’re good at—and what they love.
Tariffs can help bring back job variety so that all Americans can thrive.
Skepticism from the Right
Even conservative thinker Thomas Sowell expressed uncertainty.
He warned that unpredictable policy can freeze investment and hurt the economy. If people don’t know what’s coming next, they hold on to their money—and that can lead to stagnation.
But that assumes prolonged uncertainty. Trump’s strategy seems focused, and nations are already responding positively.
A Cascade of Concessions
Once a few countries negotiate, others will follow. A domino effect. This is how Trump reshapes global trade.
Even if some still criticize him, Trump has:
- Created leverage with nearly every country.
- Boosted government revenues.
- Expanded job opportunities.
- Positioned himself as a global dealmaker.
THE BAD
While the Trump tariff plan may have strategic aims and patriotic appeal, there are a number of serious criticisms and potential drawbacks that economists, policymakers, and business leaders have pointed out. Here’s a detailed list of negatives—economic, political, and strategic:
🧾 ECONOMIC NEGATIVES
- Higher Consumer Prices
- Tariffs are taxes on imports, and those costs are often passed on to consumers. Everyday goods—like electronics, clothing, and food—become more expensive.
- Regressive Tax Impact
- Tariffs hit lower- and middle-income Americans hardest, since a higher percentage of their income goes to necessities that may now cost more.
- Retaliation from Trade Partners
- Other countries respond in kind, imposing their own tariffs on U.S. goods—especially agriculture and manufacturing—which hurts U.S. exporters.
- Disrupted Supply Chains
- Many U.S. businesses rely on global supply chains. Tariffs raise costs and create uncertainty for manufacturers who import parts from overseas.
- Reduced Business Investment
- Uncertainty caused by trade wars discourages long-term business investment, especially in manufacturing and export-driven sectors.
- Global Trade Contraction
- Widespread tariffs reduce overall trade volume globally, which can slow economic growth not just in the U.S., but worldwide.
- Negative GDP Impact
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and independent economists have projected that tariffs could slightly reduce U.S. GDP over the long term.
- Stock Market Volatility
- Markets often react negatively to trade tensions. Announcements of tariffs tend to cause stock dips, particularly in industries that rely on exports.
🏛️ POLITICAL & STRATEGIC NEGATIVES
- Strained Diplomatic Relations
- Tariffs can sour relationships with key allies like Canada, the EU, Japan, and South Korea, complicating cooperation on defense and diplomacy.
- Violations of WTO Rules
- Some tariffs may violate international trade agreements, opening the U.S. to formal complaints at the World Trade Organization.
- Undermines Rules-Based Order
- Rather than using established dispute resolution processes, unilateral tariffs suggest the U.S. is bypassing global norms—damaging credibility.
- Short-Term Thinking
- Using tariffs as negotiation tools may yield short-term wins but risks long-term strategic damage to America’s role in global trade.
- Risk of Escalating Trade Wars
- What starts as a tactical move can spiral into a full-scale trade war, with long-lasting economic damage and loss of goodwill.
🧠 PHILOSOPHICAL & SYSTEMIC NEGATIVES
- Contradiction with Free Market Principles
- Conservatives and libertarians argue that tariffs interfere with market efficiency, contradicting traditional right-wing economic philosophy.
- Government Picking Winners and Losers
- Tariffs favor certain industries (like steel or aluminum) at the expense of others (like auto manufacturing or agriculture).
- False Promise of Job Growth
- While tariffs can protect specific jobs, they often cost more jobs than they save—especially in export-dependent sectors.
- Consumer Nationalism over Consumer Choice
- The plan prioritizes buying American over letting consumers decide based on price and quality.
- Potential for Cronyism
- Lobbyists may push for tariffs that benefit their industries while hurting consumers or other sectors of the economy.
THE UGLY
You Never Know How Things Will Turn Out
Tariffs are like lighting a match in a fireworks factory. You might hit just the fuse you want—or the whole place might go up in flames.
The truth is, you can plan, model, and forecast all you want, but once a tariff hits the global stage, there are ripple effects no one can fully predict. Supply chains get snarled in ways economists didn’t model. Allies take it personally. Opponents weaponize it politically. And your average consumer just sees prices go up while their paycheck stays the same.
History reminds us that well-intentioned economic “fixes” have turned into disasters before. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, meant to protect U.S. farmers, helped crash global trade and deepen the Great Depression. Could that happen again? Maybe not—but anyone who says they know is bluffing harder than Trump himself.
Markets are emotional. Nations are prideful. And people are unpredictable. The ugliest part of any bold move is not what you see—it’s what you don’t.
So here we are, waiting to find out if this plan was genius… or the spark that starts the fire.
So, Trump just figured out how to take over the world—without firing a shot, or at least he shook it like a pecan tree. He weaponized economics, turned tariffs into leverage, and flipped the rules of global trade.
So here we are, waiting to find out if this plan was genius… or the spark that starts the fire.
Let me know what you think in the comments below.
EXTRA CREDIT
Trump’s Tariffs: Madness or Method?
TRUMP’S TARRIFS
🇺🇸⚔️ U.S.-China Trade War Escalates: The Global Stakes
What is NEXT for the Markets and the World
The Reckoning: China’s Economic Miracle Is Turning Into a Slow-Motion Collapse and Trump is helping
Alliances, Allies, Allies and more damn Allies – the Illusion of Loyalty
Diplomacy – the Fine Art of Pretending and when the pretending is over – WAR
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