So, Pakistan and India are at it again.
India reportedly took out what they’re calling terrorist locations inside Pakistan. In response, Pakistan claims it retaliated and knocked out a dozen Indian aircraft. But from what I’ve seen, that claim doesn’t appear to be true. China, interestingly, is also promoting Pakistan’s narrative.
Nobody really knows where this is going. India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers. India is more capable, both economically and militarily, but that doesn’t make the situation any less dangerous. The fact that China is backing Pakistan may backfire. It could push India to sever more ties with China, economically and diplomatically.
And as always, there’s a flood of false information on the internet. I don’t want to add to that. However, here’s a video from India by someone I follow closely. Their reporting is usually solid and presents the situation in harrowing detail.
All I can say is, I’m keeping my fingers crossed. I never want to see World War III. But honestly, the odds of a global war breaking out are probably 50-50 at this point—maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe 20 years from now. But eventually? It feels inevitable. One of the likeliest flashpoints has always been, and still is, the India-Pakistan border.
It’s there. It’s real. And it’s dangerous.
India and Pakistan have been walking a tightrope since 1947, and every escalation, especially one involving cross-border strikes and conflicting claims, raises the risk of miscalculation. Add nuclear weapons into the mix, and it becomes a geopolitical tinderbox. What’s especially dangerous now is the information war—narratives spun by media outlets, governments, and social media that can rapidly inflame public sentiment and box leaders into a corner.
China’s role complicates the picture. Beijing sees Pakistan as a strategic ally in its effort to counterbalance India—especially with its Belt and Road Initiative running through Pakistan via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But backing Pakistan in a major escalation could drive India further into the arms of Western alliances like the Quad (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia), which China doesn’t want.
Keep your eyes open but not fan the flames. Sharing verifiable sources and encouraging clear-headed discussion is vital. Even though World War III sounds like a headline from a dystopian movie, the seeds of such a catastrophe are usually planted in confusion, nationalism, and unchecked escalation.
Here’s a timeline of major military escalations between India and Pakistan, focusing on key events, how they were triggered, and how they were eventually de-escalated. This gives a clearer sense of the patterns—how close we’ve come to wider war, and what kept it from going nuclear:
India–Pakistan Military Escalation Timeline
1947–1948: First Kashmir War
- Trigger: Partition of British India and Pakistan’s support for tribal militias invading Kashmir.
- Outcome: UN-brokered ceasefire. Kashmir divided into Indian-administered and Pakistan-administered regions. Tensions institutionalized.
1965: Second Kashmir War
- Trigger: Pakistan’s “Operation Gibraltar” aimed at fomenting insurgency in Kashmir.
- Outcome: Full-scale war. Thousands killed. U.S. and Soviet Union intervened diplomatically. Tashkent Agreement signed under Soviet mediation.
1971: Bangladesh Liberation War
- Trigger: Civil war in East Pakistan, with India supporting Bengali independence fighters.
- Outcome: India decisively defeated Pakistan. East Pakistan became Bangladesh. Led to India’s emergence as regional power.
1987: Brasstacks Crisis
- Trigger: Massive Indian military exercise near the Pakistan border.
- Outcome: Pakistan mobilized. Escalation stopped through high-level talks. Marked by fear of nuclear confrontation for the first time.
1999: Kargil War
- Trigger: Pakistani soldiers and militants infiltrated Indian positions in Kargil (Indian Kashmir).
- Outcome: India repelled the incursion. U.S. pressured Pakistan to withdraw. Major embarrassment for Pakistan’s military.
2001–2002: Parliament Attack and Standoff
- Trigger: Attack on Indian Parliament by Pakistani-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- Outcome: Both countries mobilized nearly a million troops. Stand-off lasted 10 months. De-escalated through U.S. and Russian mediation.
2008: Mumbai Attacks
- Trigger: Lashkar-e-Taiba attack in Mumbai killed over 170 people.
- Outcome: India refrained from military retaliation but cut dialogue. Diplomatic isolation campaign against Pakistan.
2016: Uri Attack and Indian “Surgical Strikes”
- Trigger: Attack on Indian army base in Uri (Kashmir).
- Outcome: India claimed cross-border raids on militant camps. Pakistan denied any strike happened. Escalation remained controlled.
2019: Pulwama Attack and Balakot Air Strikes
- Trigger: Suicide bombing killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers.
- Outcome: India bombed Balakot in Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated and claimed downing an Indian fighter jet. Pilot captured, then returned as peace gesture. Major diplomatic intervention avoided full war.
Takeaways:
- Nuclear Deterrence Has So Far Worked: Both sides know the cost of escalation.
- Third Parties Often Step In: The U.S., China, and Russia have all played key roles in cooling tensions.
- Information War Is Escalating: Modern escalations now play out online first—often with misinformation.
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