The Dirty Truth About Cycles, Dollars, and That Gold You Think Is Shining

There’s a harsh law in life and investing: what goes up, must come down. Doesn’t matter if it’s stocks, real estate, or your cousin’s crypto coin. We get these manic moments where everything’s going up, up, up like a hot-air balloon with no ceiling. But eventually—gravity kicks in.

Then there’s the long con—the macro tricks. These are the invisible hands that work over 20, 30, 50 years. Like the slow death of the dollar. You think gold is going up? It’s not. The dollar’s just falling down like a drunk on payday. Same with real estate—your house isn’t worth more; your money is worth less. That shiny “gain” is just inflation with lipstick on.

Why does the dollar drop? Because the government and the Fed are like two gamblers in Vegas—printing and spending like the rules don’t apply. They call it “quantitative easing.” I call it watering down the soup until it tastes like warm tap water and debt.

We pretend our net worth is growing. Great—you got $50,000 in the bank? Go buy a Lexus or a mid-range camera. See how far that gets you in five years.

So, what do we do?

Well, it depends on where you are in the cycle. There are small cycles every 2–3 years. Then there are big cycles—the kind that shake the trees, flood the basement, and change careers. We’re in one now. A big one. You can feel it—like a washing machine about to drain the dirty water and start spinning like mad.

A recession is coming. Not maybe. Not possibly. It’s coming.

Because people are up to their ears in debt.
Because governments are throwing money they don’t have.
Because prices are bloated like a tick on a fat dog.

And when that hits the brick wall of reality, things fall.

Except maybe gold.
Gold just sits there, quiet and stubborn, like the old man who’s seen too many scams to flinch anymore.

Would you like a graphic or chart to go with this—maybe showing the gold price vs. the dollar over time? Why Gold Mining Stocks?

Well, here’s the thing: it costs about the same to pull an ounce of gold out of the ground whether it’s worth $2,000 or $3,000. But if it’s selling for $3,000, the profit margin just skyrocketed. That’s the leverage built into gold miners. The same hole in the ground suddenly becomes a gold mine—literally and figuratively.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting: when you’re looking at mining stocks, you’re always seeing last quarter’s earnings, not the full benefit of current gold prices. So if gold is climbing, and the miners are priced based on past earnings, that creates a potential upside. You’re buying the present at yesterday’s prices.

Of course, it’s not all roses and bullion. There are geopolitical risks—some mines are in less-than-stable countries, and that’s priced into the stock. Then there’s efficiency and management competence. Some companies can squeeze more gold out of a rock for less. That’s where you separate the wheat from the fool’s gold.

Personally, I already own one Canadian gold company. It did terribly for a while. Now it’s doing great. But I’m not adding more—not because I don’t believe in it, but because I believe in diversification more.

That goes for my ETFs too. I hold both IAU and GLD, with a preference for IAU. But I don’t like having all my eggs—or my gold—in one basket, no matter how shiny the basket is. Same with gold miners. I’ll be picking up a few shares here, a few there. Different flavors. Different risk profiles.

I’m not throwing all my money in at once, either. I’m easing in, testing the waters. Scaling in over time. Because this isn’t a trade—it’s a long-term hedge against uncertainty, inflation, and foolishness at the highest levels of finance.

Gold is my anchor.
Miners are my leverage.
And discipline is my strategy.

🟡 IAU vs. GLD: A Detailed Comparison

Stock market information for iShares Gold Trust (IAU)

iShares Gold Trust is a fund in the USA market.
The price is 63.75 USD currently with a change of -0.11 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close.
The latest trade time is Thursday, May 8, 06:57:55 EDT.

Stock market information for SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

SPDR Gold Shares ETF is a fund in the USA market.
The price is 312.35 USD currently with a change of -3.13 USD (-0.01%) from the previous close.
The latest trade time is Thursday, May 8, 06:58:56 EDT.

Both IAU (iShares Gold Trust) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) are prominent gold-backed ETFs that aim to track the price of gold bullion. Here’s how they compare:

📈 Performance

Year-to-Date Returns (2025):
- IAU: +28.48%
- GLD: +28.34%(PortfoliosLab)
10-Year Annualized Returns:
- IAU: 10.74%
- GLD: 10.58%(Tickeron, PortfoliosLab)

The performance of both ETFs is nearly identical, with IAU having a slight edge over the long term. (PortfoliosLab)

💰 Expense Ratios

IAU: 0.25%
GLD: 0.40%(etfcentral.com, PortfoliosLab)

IAU offers a lower expense ratio, making it more cost-effective for long-term investors.

💵 Share Price & Accessibility

IAU: Approximately $63.75 per share
GLD: Approximately $312.35 per share

IAU’s lower share price allows for easier fractional investing and dollar-cost averaging.

🔄 Liquidity & Volume

GLD: Higher average daily volume (~15.9 million shares)
IAU: Slightly lower average daily volume (~11.2 million shares)(PortfoliosLab, ETF Database)

GLD’s higher liquidity may result in tighter bid-ask spreads, beneficial for active traders. (etf.com)

🏆 Verdict

For long-term investors focused on cost efficiency, IAU is a compelling choice due to its lower expense ratio and accessible share price. However, if liquidity and tighter spreads are paramount, especially for larger trades, GLD may be preferable.(etf.com)

⛏️ Top Gold Mining Stocks to Consider

Investing in gold mining stocks can offer leveraged exposure to gold prices. Here are some notable companies:

1. Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Market Cap: $62.3B
P/E Ratio: 19.4
Dividend Yield: 1.81%
Gold Reserves: 134.1 million ounces
YTD Performance: +40%

Newmont is the world’s largest gold producer, with a diversified portfolio and strong free cash flow.

2. Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)

Market Cap: $33.8B
P/E Ratio: 17.2
Dividend Yield: 2.10%
Gold Reserves: 76 million ounces
YTD Performance: +20%

Barrick has a strong presence in North America and Africa, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production. (Securities.io)

3. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Market Cap: $18.7B
P/E Ratio: 18.4
Dividend Yield: 2.5%
Gold Reserves: 106.8 million ounces
YTD Performance: +50%(MINING.COM, LevelFields)

Agnico Eagle operates in stable jurisdictions and is known for its operational efficiency.

4. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)

Market Cap: $8.9B
P/E Ratio: 19.6
Dividend Yield: 1.5%
Gold Reserves: 21.9 million ounces
YTD Performance: +100%(Elliott wave Forecast, LevelFields)

Kinross has a diverse portfolio and has shown significant stock appreciation this year.

5. AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU)

Market Cap: $22.1B
P/E Ratio: 18.4
Dividend Yield: 2.1%
Gold Reserves: 82 million ounces
YTD Performance: +90%(etf.com)

AngloGold operates mines across four continents, offering geographical diversification.

🧠 Strategic Considerations

Given your investment strategy—prioritizing liquidity, hedging against inflation, and minimizing exposure to high P/E stocks—here are some tailored insights:

Newmont (NEM): Offers a strong balance sheet and consistent dividend, making it a solid choice for stability and income.
Barrick (GOLD): Despite geopolitical challenges in Mali, Barrick’s global diversification and growth initiatives could provide long-term value.
Agnico Eagle (AEM): With operations in stable jurisdictions and a commitment to shareholder returns, Agnico Eagle aligns well with a conservative investment approach.
Kinross (KGC): Its impressive year-to-date performance and stable production outlook make it appealing, though the higher P/E ratio warrants consideration.
AngloGold (AU): The company’s global presence and recent performance are notable, but potential investors should monitor developments in its African operations.

These are the four best recent videos on the subject. They are not selling gold, they are telling the truth. Just like me, they have no stake in you doing anything. Just giving you information.