Think of it as Yoga for the brain, we are going to stretch a bit.
The Economy Right Now — the Middle of the Storm
“There’s a force in the universe that makes things happen. All you have to do is get in touch with it… Be the ball.” -- CADDYSHACK
Ty is giving “deep, spiritual” golf advice to young Danny Noonan
If you stand very still and listen, you can almost hear the economy creaking.
Not collapsing, not exploding — just creaking, the way an old house does when the wind changes direction and the floorboards remember they were trees once. And when a house starts talking to you like that, you don’t ignore it. That’s how folks end up in the evening news.
Right now, America’s house is whispering, “Something ain’t right, friend.”
Let me tell you why.
1. The Cracks Start at the Bottom — And They’re Widening
The first red flag isn’t on Wall Street; it’s on Main Street.
Subprime auto delinquencies? Skyrocketing.
Foreclosures? Picking up pace in overbuilt neighborhoods the way weeds shoot up after a rainstorm.
Consumers? Spending like someone who already knows the credit card bill is going to hurt, so they might as well enjoy the appetizer.
Debt is climbing, cash is thinning, and hope is being financed on 22% APR.
Every big recession started with little bills people couldn’t pay.
This time, we’re starting the movie halfway through.
2. The Bond Market Is Screaming While Everyone Pretends It’s Whispering
You know a man’s in trouble when he’s borrowing money at 10% interest and still has to offer you a discount just to take the loan.
That’s what’s happening in the bond market — Oracle, Applied Digital, the whole AI-is-the-future parade.
If the bond market is the part of the economy that wears the glasses and does the math, then the math guy is now waving his arms shouting, “Folks, the numbers don’t add up!”
When safe companies are selling 30-year debt at fire-sale prices, that’s not a prediction — that’s a confession.
3. The Fed Is Sitting on Its Hands Like a Man Watching His Roof Catch Fire
Everyone wants the Fed to cut rates.
Homebuyers want it.
Businesses want it.
The stock market wants it so bad it’s practically banging pots and pans outside the Fed’s window.
But the Fed?
The Fed is looking at the smoke rising out of the kitchen and saying:
“Let’s wait and see if the fire puts itself out.”
Their odds of cutting in December?
Less than a coin toss.
Forty-three percent.
Try building your financial future on those odds.
The trouble is — once the jobs market cracks, it doesn’t bend. It breaks. And when it breaks, everything else follows.
But by then the Fed won’t be deciding anything.
They’ll just be reacting.
And reactions are always too late.
4. The Stock Market Is Acting Brave… Because It Doesn’t Know It’s in Danger
People are taking on margin like they’re signing up for a gym membership they’ll never use.
Debt is up 26%.
Cash is down 21%.
Options trading is exploding like fireworks in a dry forest.
Meanwhile, Robinhood shows young investors bleeding their cash reserves while tapping more leverage.
In 1999, the tech bubble had seven corrections before it burst.
This time?
We’ve barely had three dips over 2% — and people already think the sky is falling.
That’s not confidence.
That’s inexperience dressed up as courage.
5. Valuations Are High Enough to Give a Giraffe Vertigo
JP Morgan is quietly whispering that the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio is now in the danger zone — the part of the chart where future returns look like:
+1% on a good year
or
-2% on a normal year
That’s not investing.
That’s hoping.
And hope is not a strategy — at least not one you should finance with borrowed money.
6. Consumer Stocks Are Cheap… Because the Consumer Is Tired
Target, Lowe’s, TJ Maxx, Walmart, Home Depot, airlines, entertainment, restaurants — they’re all trading like folks just stopped buying joy.
Maybe they have.
Maybe they can’t afford it anymore.
We are already in a consumer discretionary recession — nobody announced it, but your shopping cart knows.
7. The International Money Flood
2024 and 2025 are some of the largest foreign inflow years ever recorded.
Money from overseas has been pumping US stocks like they’re the only party left in town.
Great for prices.
Terrible for stability.
Hot money comes quickly — and leaves faster.
8. The Soft-Landing Story Everyone Wants… Is Starting to Look Like a Fairy Tale
Cities are reporting weakening consumers.
Delinquencies everywhere.
Bond markets cracking.
The Fed refusing to move.
Investors overleveraged.
Valuations stretched.
Foreign money propping up the table.
And the official forecast?
“We expect spending to pick back up in 2026.”
That’s like a doctor patting your hand and saying:
“You’re not doing well now, but two years from today you’ll feel fantastic.”
Sure, Doc. And maybe I’ll grow wings by spring.
9. Where Does That Leave Us?
Right here:
A fragile economy being carried by debt, denial, and a little bit of luck — while the folks in charge insist everything looks fine from their office window.
It’s not doom.
It’s not collapse.
It’s something more dangerous: Pretending.
Pretending people aren’t falling behind.
Pretending bonds aren’t breaking.
Pretending markets aren’t addicted to rate cuts.
Pretending the Fed isn’t boxed into a corner.
The creaking is real.
You can ignore it if you want — but you’ll hear it again tonight.
The Twist
Every economy has two kinds of truth:
the kind you see in numbers and the kind you feel in your bones.
The numbers say “be careful.”
The bones say “brace yourself.”
