Category: RISK

There Be Dragons – Hunting, Making Deals, and Surviving

Most men spend their lives tending a farm. A few wander over the hill looking for dragons. The trouble is, once you’ve killed one, the ordinary hunt never looks quite as interesting again. –YNOT! There are a lot of ways to make a living. Some people work the farm. I don’t mean literally—although some do. I mean they get up every morning, go to work, do their job, collect their paycheck, pay their bills, and do it again tomorrow. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Some of those jobs pay very well. A person might make $50,000 a … Continue readingThere Be Dragons – Hunting, Making Deals, and Surviving

The Last Tree in the desert

You can move to the middle of the desert if you want – Trouble will find you — YNOT!   There were two kinds of people in this world. Those who go looking for trouble and those who stayed home and waited for trouble to find them. When I was a kid, especially around Cubans, I would sometimes hear the expression, “La última Coca-Cola del desierto.” The last Coca-Cola in the desert. It was a way of saying somebody thought they were pretty damn special. The one and only. The rare item. The center of the universe. Well, this is … Continue readingThe Last Tree in the desert

What is up with Silver – Is Silver Still ‘Abundant’ When the Vaults Are Almost Empty?

“When the vault is empty, the price is just a suggestion,most people will get screwed”– YNOT! Here’s the uncomfortable truth about silver: the price you see is mostly imaginary, but the metal itself is very real—and suddenly, everyone wants it at the same time. That’s a problem. Right now, the world’s largest silver pricing casino—COMEX—has roughly 100 million ounces of silver that can actually walk out the door. Meanwhile, there are over 400 million ounces worth of paper promises lined up asking politely for delivery. That’s not a market. That’s a dinner party where four hundred hungry people show … Continue readingWhat is up with Silver – Is Silver Still ‘Abundant’ When the Vaults Are Almost Empty?

Fly With Glide Options: Why Every Leader Needs a Plan B

“It is always better to lose an opportunity than to lose capital. Opportunities return; capital does not. Smart planning and hedging allow you to seek growth without endangering survival.” — YNOT! When you learn to fly an airplane, one of the first things you’re taught—before you ever take off—is to think about Plan B. What happens if the engine quits? How far will momentum and your wings carry you? Where can you land safely without power? Pilots don’t ask these questions because they expect failure. They ask them because failure is possible, and preparation turns risk into survivability. Business … Continue readingFly With Glide Options: Why Every Leader Needs a Plan B

The Market’s Loudest Warning Signal – the VIX – Duck and Cover!

The most dangerous moment in the market is not when fear is high, but when fear is priced at zero. — YNOT! There’s a number Wall Street watches every day. Most investors glance at it, shrug, and go back to watching stock prices and earnings. But this number has preceded every major market crash in modern history. Every one. That number is the VIX—the volatility index, often called the market’s “fear gauge.” And what it’s telling us right now is alarming. Not because it’s high, but because it’s dangerously low. Historically low. The kind of low that only appears … Continue readingThe Market’s Loudest Warning Signal – the VIX – Duck and Cover!

🪙 The Mirage of Crypto Private Equity

A private equity deal tied to crypto is like investing in a skyscraper built on shifting sand. Even if the building is solid, the foundation (the crypto layer) can move beneath your feet. If you think private equity is risky, try pouring a little cryptocurrency on top — it’s like setting fire to a pot of hot grease just to see what happens. There are folks out there promising you the world: real estate deals backed by stablecoins, mining ventures tied to Bitcoin, or tokenized funds that claim to make you rich while you sleep. But what they don’t … Continue reading🪙 The Mirage of Crypto Private Equity

The Market’s Nervous Tick

Humans are mighty peculiar creatures. We invented fire to keep us warm, then spent the next ten thousand years trying not to burn the house down with it. We invented money to make life simpler, and then built the most complicated carnival of fear and greed ever seen—called the stock market. The whole affair is nothing more than a grand theater where the actors are our nerves, our greed, and our panic, playing the same tired comedy on endless repeat. So if you want to see the collective mind of mankind in all its ridiculous glory, don’t bother reading … Continue readingThe Market’s Nervous Tick

How to Pick a Stock

Folks will tell you that picking a stock is a grand science, full of charts, ratios, and prophets with pinstriped suits. Truth be told, it’s more like going to a carnival fortune teller—you squint at the cards, the smoke, and the crystal ball, and then decide whether you believe the show. The trick is not in knowing the future, but in knowing your own appetite for risk. Because in the stock market, much like in poker, it ain’t the cards you’re dealt but how steady your hand stays when the chips rattle. Let’s look at the tale of two … Continue readingHow to Pick a Stock

Is Nvidia a good buy now?

They say history doesn’t repeat, it clears its throat and hums the same old tune. And right now the band is playing in a key we’ve heard before—call it Gold Rush in Silicon. The barkers shout “AI will change everything,” the crowd nods, and the ticket man waves us aboard the fastest engine on the track. Back in ’99 they sold us the internet like it was bottled lightning; today it’s GPUs in gilded crates. Different decade, same shine. The lesson then—as now—isn’t that the future won’t arrive. It always does, right on time and over budget. The lesson … Continue readingIs Nvidia a good buy now?

When the Music Stops: How to Prepare Before the Ultimate Crash

Civilizations don’t fall in a day; they wobble for years while the wise quietly pack their bags. Folks keep saying the world is teetering on the edge of a grand economic collapse, as if that’s some shocking revelation. Truth is, if you hang around this spinning rock long enough, you’ll see that history runs in circles—boom, bust, and the occasional brawl in between. The wealthy sure seem to smell smoke before the rest of us see the flames. They’re already buying gold, stockpiling passports, and shopping for a spare country like you or I might shop for a second-hand … Continue readingWhen the Music Stops: How to Prepare Before the Ultimate Crash

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Moonshot: Michael Saylor’s Billion-Dollar Gamble

Look, I’m no Wall Street wizard, but I know a little history and can see hype train when I see one — and right now, companies are jumping on Bitcoin like it’s the last rocket to the moon. These firms are tossing aside their actual businesses faster than you can say “crypto gains,” convinced that owning digital coins will magically turn them into Wall Street darlings. It’s the same old story in a shiny new wrapper: when everyone’s convinced the price will only go up, reason takes a back seat, and greed hits the gas. So here we are, … Continue readingMicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Moonshot: Michael Saylor’s Billion-Dollar Gamble

The Race Track of Investing: Understanding Risk-On and Risk-Off

I ain’t no Wall Street wizard, and I never wore a bowtie to bed or stayed up late reading earnings reports for fun. But I do know a thing or two about human nature, and it turns out the market’s got a whole lot of it—panic, pride, greed, and the occasional case of amnesia. You see, investing’s a lot like driving a race car with your ex in the passenger seat—if you go too fast in the wrong places, you’ll either crash or get an earful before you do. That’s where this idea of risk-on and risk-off comes in. … Continue readingThe Race Track of Investing: Understanding Risk-On and Risk-Off

SAY HELLO! – Risk vs. Reward The Quiet Equation that Runs Our Lives

My whole life has been about calculating risk versus reward. Really, it’s all any of us do—every single day, whether we realize it or not. You wake up in the morning, and the first decision hits you: Is it worth getting out of bed right now? We don’t say it out loud, but we feel it. That weighing. That silent debate. Everywhere we go, everything we do—driving to work, saying hello to someone, making a tough call—it’s all measured by the same mental math: What’s the risk? What’s the reward? Is it worth it? We all manage our lives … Continue readingSAY HELLO! – Risk vs. Reward The Quiet Equation that Runs Our Lives

Lessons you will learn, the easy way or the hard way

Let me tell you a story about longing—about how wanting more can blind you to what you already have. The billionaire in his private jet misses the old days when he had fewer problems and more time to enjoy his life. The millionaire in first class dreams of owning a jet—he’s grinding hard to earn that upgrade. The man in a sports car longs to be a millionaire, just so he can buy a faster one. The employee in an old beater dreams of cruising in that sports car. The unemployed cyclist just wants a job—and a car that … Continue readingLessons you will learn, the easy way or the hard way

Too Smart to Get Rich? Why Mindless Hustlers Win While the Smartys Spin Their Wheels

Let me tell you a story. Not the kind with dragons or fairy-tale endings. No, this one’s got stockbrokers, street hustlers, and a whole lotta people who got so educated they forgot how the world works. It’s about how being “too smart” might just be the thing keeping you broke. So pour yourself a cup of coffee (or whiskey—depending on your bank balance), and let’s talk about two things: A movie from the ’80s that was a comedy, but hit harder than most documentaries. A modern video rant that might just be the slap-in-the-face truth we all need. Trading … Continue readingToo Smart to Get Rich? Why Mindless Hustlers Win While the Smartys Spin Their Wheels

Perception and Uncertainty: How We See the Unknown

“A ship is safe in harbor, but that’s not what ships are for.” – William G.T. Shedd Now, folks, let me tell you something about life—it ain’t meant to be spent sittin’ on the porch, rocking back and forth, waiting for the wind to blow you somewhere interesting. No sir, life’s a river, fast and unpredictable, and the poor fool who tries to keep his boat tied to the dock forever is liable to rot before he ever gets wet. The trouble with people is they’re so downright scared of uncertainty, they’d rather stick to a miserable certainty than … Continue readingPerception and Uncertainty: How We See the Unknown

But what about BONDS – Wanna take some IOU’s

There is something peculiar about human nature, and that is our undying enthusiasm for getting something for nothing—except, of course, when we do get nothing for something. The latter predicament often rears its head in the world of bonds, where an investor, brimming with confidence, shakes hands with an issuer, exchanging hard-earned dollars today for the promise of more tomorrow. Now, a promise is only as good as the person making it, and history has taught us that some promises are written in ink, while others are drawn in disappearing ink. Bonds: The Polished IOUs of the Financial World … Continue readingBut what about BONDS – Wanna take some IOU’s

The Higher the Risk – The Higher the Reward

Back in the day, a fellow could stash his money under a mattress and sleep easy. No market crashes, no bankers speculating with his hard-earned savings, no fancy terms like “diversification” or “hedging.” Just a good night’s rest on top of a lumpy fortune. But times have changed, and so has the art of making – and losing – money. Nowadays, you can double your money overnight, or lose it all before breakfast, depending on whether you believe the right salesman. But if there’s one thing that hasn’t changed, it’s this: If someone promises you easy money, you’d best … Continue readingThe Higher the Risk – The Higher the Reward

RISKY BUSINESS: Operation Valhalla

Around 2000, we were flying into Somalia in a big old four-turboprop converted Russian cargo plane from Yemen. We had just heard that the USS Cole had been hit. We heard the pilot say, “We are getting ready to land in five minutes, put everything away and put on your seat belts. Please make sure your livestock is tied down. We will be spiraling down for a landing and coming in quickly to avoid Surface-to-Air Missiles.” As we spiraled down, we could hear the chickens and goats screaming. Five minutes later, we were down on a desert strip whose … Continue readingRISKY BUSINESS: Operation Valhalla

Carpe Diem: The Day It Clicked

“Carpe Diem” is a Latin phrase that translates to “Seize the day.” It comes from a poem by the Roman poet Horace, written around 23 BCE. The full line is: “Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero” -“Seize the day, put very little trust in tomorrow.” I heard the phrase “Carpe Diem” in Jr High the first time. Back then, it was just another Latin expression, something to memorize for a test and then forget. Later, I saw Dead Poets Society, the classic film where Robin Williams’ character, John Keating, inspires his students to embrace life and make the most … Continue readingCarpe Diem: The Day It Clicked

GAZA – Thinking Big: Solving the Root of Conflict Through Global Prosperity

They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does a fair bit of rhyming in the Middle East. You can almost hear the chorus of “We’ve tried it all before!” ringing from the city streets to the desert dunes. And yet, every so often, a grand ide  a comes along—one so bold it might just rewrite the dusty old song sheet. Here in this plan, we’ve got ourselves such a notion: turning the very place that’s seen its fair share of trouble into a glittering hub of diplomacy and commerce. Now, if you’d tell me Trump intended to … Continue readingGAZA – Thinking Big: Solving the Root of Conflict Through Global Prosperity

Why We Win, Why We Lose, and Why We Never Learn

By this afternoon, it might look downright dreadful—red numbers bleeding across the screen like a gambler’s bad night at the poker table. But before you start wringing your hands or calling it the end of the world, remember: unless you’ve mortgaged the farm to play this game, it’s just another round of the market doing what the market does. So, while we’ve got this moment of chaos, let’s talk about the psychology of investing—why people win, why people lose, and why some folks seem doomed to keep repeating the same mistakes. It ain’t just numbers and charts; it’s fear, … Continue readingWhy We Win, Why We Lose, and Why We Never Learn

P/E Ratios: The Good, The Bad, and The Downright Ugly – How to Spot a Smart Lemonade Stand

Now, let me tell you about something called the P/E Ratio, which folks on Wall Street act like is the gospel truth for picking stocks, though it ain’t quite that simple but a good starting point.. What in Tarnation is a P/E Ratio? Picture this: You got a lemonade stand, and each cup you sell makes you a dollar in profit. Now, imagine someone wants to buy a share in your stand—meaning they want a piece of your lemonade fortune. If they offer you 10 bucks for every dollar your stand earns each year, your Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio would … Continue readingP/E Ratios: The Good, The Bad, and The Downright Ugly – How to Spot a Smart Lemonade Stand

Gambling is a TAX on stupidity

There’s a peculiar sort of optimism that thrives in the gambling halls, where men and women sit hunched over their money like a hen brooding over an egg that will never hatch. The house, a benevolent tyrant, smiles and lets them dream—dream of riches, of luck, of that one grand moment when the heavens part and fortune spills into their pockets. But, as with most dreams, morning comes swiftly, and reality demands payment. Now, some folks say gambling is just a bit of fun, and maybe it is, in the same way that poking a sleeping bear is an … Continue readingGambling is a TAX on stupidity

DAY. 19 – Emotions Lie — Emotions vs. Knowledge – Risk vs. Reward in Life

The trouble with emotions is they’re the worst liars you’ll ever meet — and they live rent-free in your own head. They whisper sweet nonsense in your ear, set your heart racing like a one-legged man in a frog-jumping contest, and before you know it, you’ve bet the farm on a feeling that vanishes faster than a politician’s promise after election day. Life itself is a poker table, except half the players don’t know the rules and the other half are bluffing. Emotions slap their chips down in wild, glorious fashion, all instinct and impulse, while knowledge quietly counts … Continue readingDAY. 19 – Emotions Lie — Emotions vs. Knowledge – Risk vs. Reward in Life

Passion vs. Fear: A Battle of Epic Proportions

In the great emotional arena, two heavyweights stand toe-to-toe, duking it out for supremacy: passion and fear. These emotional titans couldn’t be more different, yet they are forever locked in an intense struggle, a struggle that ultimately shapes our lives. We will dive into the comedic world of passion and fear, showcasing how passion delivers the ultimate uppercut to fear’s pesky attempts to hold us back. So, grab some popcorn, because this is going to be one wild and hilarious ride! I. The Humorous Contrast Between Passion and Fear Picture passion as an overly excited, ever-optimistic cheerleader, jumping up … Continue readingPassion vs. Fear: A Battle of Epic Proportions

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