Think of it as Yoga for the brain, we are going to stretch a bit.
The Really Big Problem
with Cuba
Cuba’s greatest shortage may not be food, fuel, medicine, dollars, or electricity. After sixty years of dictatorship, Cuba’s greatest shortage may be trusted leadership. The prison door will open. The real question is: who knows how to rebuild the house? -- YNOT!
The big problem with Cuba is not simply that the dictatorship is old.
The big problem is that the dictatorship has been there so long that the Cuba before the revolution has practically disappeared from living memory.
Almost everyone who was an adult before Castro took power is dead. The people who remember a Cuba before the revolution are gone, or nearly gone. The people who knew the old institutions, the old political parties, the old business class, the old civic culture, the old newspapers, the old courts, the old normal life — most of them are no longer here to explain it.
That is the tragedy. A dictatorship does not only steal elections. It steals memory.
It steals experience. It steals leadership.
It steals the natural passing of power from one generation to the next.
So now Cuba has a strange problem. When freedom finally comes — and I believe it is coming — who is going to run the country?
That is not a small question. That is the question.
Because Cuba has been locked in a political refrigerator for more than sixty years. The island has not been allowed to develop normal democratic leaders. It has not been allowed to have real parties, real debates, real elections, real newspapers, real unions, real business associations, real mayors with power, real governors, or real national candidates.
The regime did not just imprison people. It prevented the next generation of leadership from being born.
Now look at the Cuban exile community in the United States. There are successful Cubans everywhere. Business owners. Lawyers. Doctors. Congressmen. Media people. Military people. Entrepreneurs. People with money, education, and experience.
But there is a problem. Many of them have political clout in Miami, Washington, or New Jersey.
That does not automatically mean they have political legitimacy in Camagüey, Santiago, Holguín, Matanzas, or Havana.
A Cuban-American politician may understand Cuba emotionally. He may understand communism. He may understand exile. He may understand Washington. But does the average Cuban on the island know him? Trust him? Follow him? See him as one of them?
That is much harder.
If you asked a typical Cuban in Cuba, “Who in the United States would you want to lead a free Cuba?” there may only be a few names that come up. Marco Rubio might be one. Maybe María Elvira Salazar. Maybe Carlos Giménez. Maybe Mario Díaz-Balart. But even then, that is a Cuban-American answer, not necessarily a Cuban-island answer.
And that is the difference.
The exile may have the money. The island has the suffering. The exile may have the connections. The island has the legitimacy.The exile may have the plan. The island has the scars.
And a free Cuba cannot be rebuilt by people who only understand one side of that equation.
Then you have the internal opposition. People like José Daniel Ferrer, Rosa María Payá, Berta Soler, Manuel Cuesta Morúa, Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, Yoani Sánchez, and others who have spent years resisting the system from inside or directly against it.
These people have something the exile class cannot manufacture: they paid a price on Cuban soil.
They were watched. Threatened. Censored. Beaten. Jailed. Exiled. Silenced. Harassed.
That gives them moral authority. But moral authority is not the same as administrative capacity.
Running a country is not the same as opposing a dictatorship.
You can be brave and still not know how to rebuild the electrical grid.
You can be heroic and still not know how to reform the courts.
You can be a patriot and still not know how to stabilize the currency, feed eleven million people, rebuild agriculture, create property rights, reopen trade, handle foreign debt, deal with the military, and keep the country from becoming a playground for every foreign investor with a suitcase and a smile.
That is the danger. The day after freedom is not automatically freedom.
Sometimes the day after freedom is chaos wearing a flag.
That is why Cuba needs a transition plan now. Not later.
Now.
A free Cuba will need several groups working together.
It will need the internal opposition because they have legitimacy.
It will need the exile community because they have resources, education, connections, and capital.
It will need Cuban technocrats who understand how the island actually functions.
It will need business people who can rebuild commerce without turning the country into a fire sale.
It will need lawyers who can rebuild property rights without creating civil war over every house, farm, and hotel.
It will need young Cubans because they are the future.
It will need old Cubans because they remember what was stolen.
And yes, it may even need some people from inside the current system who did not commit crimes but know how the machinery works. Because if you throw out every person who knows how to run the power plant, the port, the hospital, the water system, and the food distribution network, then your revolution will be very pure — and very hungry.
That is the hard truth. Cuba does not only need liberation.
Cuba needs management. Cuba needs law.
Cuba needs order. Cuba needs reconciliation without forgetting.
Justice without revenge. Capitalism without looting.
Democracy without foreign puppets.
And patriotism without another caudillo riding in on a horse, a microphone, or a military truck.
The next leader of Cuba may not be one person.
It may need to be a transition council. A temporary government.
A coalition of island dissidents, exile leaders, business minds, legal experts, religious leaders, and younger Cubans who understand the internet age better than the Cold War age.
Because the great mistake would be to think that removing communism automatically creates a republic.
It does not.
A republic has to be built. Brick by brick. Law by law. Institution by institution.
And after sixty-plus years of dictatorship, Cuba’s greatest shortage may not be food, fuel, dollars, medicine, or electricity.
Cuba’s greatest shortage may be trusted leadership.
That is the big problem with Cuba.
The regime is dying. The revolution is old. The myths are exhausted.
The economy is broken. The people are tired.
Cuba will be free. I believe it will be free within the next five years.
But freedom is only the beginning.
The real question is this:
When the prison door opens, who knows how to build the house?
Here is the table of the named possible candidates / transition figures mentioned in the post. I would not frame all of them as “president material.” Some are better described as transition council, opposition legitimacy, exile connection, or civil society leadership candidates.
Name
Base
Why Mentioned
Strength
Weakness / Problem
Best Possible Role
Marco Rubio
Cuban-American / U.S. government
Current U.S. Secretary of State; son of Cuban immigrants; major U.S. Cuba-policy figure. (State Department)
Highest U.S. political power, foreign-policy experience, strong anti-communist credibility
Seen as American, not island-based; may not have direct legitimacy inside Cuba
U.S. diplomatic sponsor / transition architect, not likely Cuban president
María Elvira Salazar
Cuban-American / Miami politics
U.S. Representative for Florida’s 27th District; chairs the House Western Hemisphere Subcommittee. (Representative Maria Salazar)
Media skill, Spanish-language communication, Cuba-policy platform
U.S.-based; may be viewed as Miami politics rather than Cuban island leadership
Public communicator / exile representative / international advocate
Carlos Giménez
Cuban-born Cuban-American / U.S. Congress
Represents Florida’s 28th District; official bio describes him as the only current Cuban-born member of Congress. (Congressman Carlos Gimenez)
Administrative experience as former Miami-Dade mayor; born in Cuba
Older U.S.-based political figure; limited direct island following
Artist and dissident; detained since July 11, 2021, sentenced to five years; Amnesty has called him a prisoner of conscience. (Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission)
Powerful youth/culture symbol; connects with artists and younger Cubans
Imprisoned; activist-symbol role more than governing role
Cultural freedom minister / youth-symbol / transition council voice
Yoani Sánchez
Cuban independent journalism
Cuban journalist and co-founder of 14ymedio, Cuba’s first independent daily digital news outlet. (Oslo Freedom Forum)
Credibility in independent media, communication, truth-telling
More journalist than politician; may not want governing role
Free press / information reform / public transparency leader
Cuba may not need one savior. It may need a transition council combining island dissidents, exile resources, technocrats, legal minds, and civil society figures.
